Baltic Earth Workshop on Climate projections and uncertainties in the northern Baltic Sea region

OrtFinnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, Finland
GastgeberFinnish Environment Institute, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, University of Stockholm and Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht)

Climatic projections for the Baltic Sea have been carried out by numerous models.
During the analyses of the results it was found that the uncertainty of the projections is largest in the northern Baltic Sea and Gulf of Finland.
In these areas, the models usually have the lowest skill.
Due to these shortcomings in the northern Baltic, it is of vital importance to collect specialists together to discuss the problems.






The climatic projections play an important role in several issues:

  • The adaptation to Climate Change (CC) is a major topic, and advice based on climatic projections is needed for various management issues.
  • Effective mitigation planning is needed e.g. in terms of eutrophication etc.
  • It is necessary to evaluate the role of the northern Baltic Sea in global carbon balance. Does the northern Baltic Sea act as strong source (cf. Arctic coastal areas)?
  • The northern Baltic Sea may act as a laboratory for studying CC mechanism in northern latitudes by using models as a tool.

Representatives of some of the most frequently used BGC models for projections of the Baltic Sea ecosystem such as ERGOM, SCOBI, BALTSEM, BFM, SPBEM, ECOSMO and PROBE-Baltic will discuss the issues above. We hope and anticipate that this workshop adds to the overall improvement of model development in the Northern Baltic Sea region, but also beyond.

Presentations and posters about these topics are welcome (see call.... A common paper to AMBIO as outcome of this workshop is envisaged!

Motivation and objectives of the Workshop

Adaption to climate nchange is a major challenge. Plausible climate projections are needed to advise management decisions and develope effective mitigation strategies, e.g. to reduce eutrophication.

Users and developers of the most frequently used circulation and biogeochemical models for the Baltic Sea, such as GETM, RCO, MOM, ERGOM, SCOBI, BALTSEM, BFM, SPBEM, ECOSMO and PROBE-Baltic (and others) are invited to discuss the shortcomings in the northern Baltic Sea. We hope and anticipate that this workshop adds to the overall improvement of model developement in the northern Baltic Sea region, but also beyond. A joint paper on this topic in AMBIO is envisaged.

Workshop Committee

  • Harri Kuosa, Finnish Environment Institute
  • Kai Myrberg, Finnish Environment Institute
  • Markus Meier, Leibnitz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde
  • Bo Gustafsson, University of Stockholm
  • Markus Reckermann, International Baltic Earth Secretariat at Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht

Call for presentations

Presentations (oral and posters) related to the scope of the workshop are welcome. Abstracts must be submitted by 11 October 2019 to balticearth@hzg.de .

Keynote talks will be given by Markus Meier, Karol Kulinski, Letizia Tedesco and Bo Gustafsson.