Systems Analysis and Modelling

The division ”system analysis and monitoring” is housing several groups dealing with the key questions of the Institute for Coastal Research, namely:

- How does global change affect the coastal system?

- What is the present state and present change of the coastal zone?

- How can we reliably and cost-effectively monitor coastal processes?

As such, the division contributes to the PACES program, set up jointly by Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht and AWI.
Another group is engaged in aspects of the global climate, with emphasis on modelling and analysing climate variations and possible future changes.
The methodological backbone of the work is

- the availability of various numerical models of environmental components,

- of competence in statistical analysis and

- knowledge about occurrence and behaviour of chemicals in the environment.

These abilities - modelling, analysis and assessment - are used to

- reconstruct past environmental states and changes (mainly the past 40 years) in space-time detail, as well as
- constructing scenarios of possible future changes due to changing global and regional pressures.

At the same time, the Institute has established means to incorporate the human dimension into all deliberations about the state and change of the environment.
Examples of such efforts refer to the marine and coastal wind climate, storm surges, wind waves, currents, transport and deposition of adverse anthropogenic substances.
This is done to determine risks, discriminate between natural and anthropogenic changes, and assess needs for adaptation to regional and global change.
The modelling system is continuously extended with the help of various partners to include suspended matter, marine ecosystems, transport of chemically active substances, sedimentation, and morphodynamics. Also, efforts are underway to implement modern data assimilation techniques, which allow not only detailed reconstructions of unobserved quantities but also operational applications in, for instance, ship security.

Overview of the departments