Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, 2012-02-11
http://www.hzg.de/institute/coastal_research/structure/operational_systems/KOE/topics/topics/002159/index_0002159.html

Ecosystem Dynamics

Within the concept of "Food Web" we seek to describe the feed-backs between adaptations in the marine food web and biogeochemistry. Major ingredients of this concept derive from ecological stoichiometry as well as allometric scaling which are then translated to models using the methodology of regulation dynamics.

 

 

Climate impact studies of the southern North Sea

Ctenophores such as Beroe gracilis and Pleurobrachia pileus could be particularly affected by temperature variations via changes in their own phenology and that of their prey (e.g. copepods) thus causing shifts in ecosystem function. Thus, a new statistical methodology based on probability theory is processed to investigate the successional patterns of these three zooplankton groups in relation to temperature at Helgoland Roads. The result is at the response to seasonal warming trends differs among trophic levels. The temporal responses of gelatinous zooplankton are abrupt in relation to small abrupt temperature changes. However, the changes in copepods abundance were not consistent with changes in the ctenophores. Consequently, the phenological changes in secondary consumers lead to changes in primary consumers.

Change point model results for Start Of Growth Period and monthly mean SST

Step change in 1987 to earlier appearances of ctenophores and higher temperatures.

Seasonal advancement of the ctenophores correlate best with a step-like increase in spring SST

Pleurobrachia pileus is characterised by a uni-model distribution in regime 1 and by a bi-model distribution in regime 2 whereas the other groups remained uni-modal

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