2010-02-25 Press release Helmholtz Association

Online now: the Regional Climate Atlas for Germany

Online now: the Regional Climate Atlas for Germany

Although this year’s cold winter may lead some to think that climate change is a thing of the past, long-term temperature measurements clearly show that Germany’s warming trend continues unabated. The future effects of climate change in different regions of Germany are shown in the Regional Climate Atlas, a product of the Helmholtz Association’s network of Regional Climate Offices.

Starting today, future climate scenarios for the German federal states are available to the public for online reference at www.regionaler-klimaatlas.de. Users can select different climate variables like temperature, precipitation and wind and view the range of changes that may occur in the future according to season in the different federal states.

“The Helmholtz Association has intensified its focus on climate research, and the REKLIM climate initiative examining the regional impact of global climate change is a further step in this direction. The four Regional Climate Offices were commissioned to find an accessible way to present the latest research results to supply decision makers in various target groups with first-hand information. The Regional Climate Atlas, which is available for public consultation, successfully achieves that goal,” says Dr Jürgen Mlynek, President of the Helmholtz Association. “The Climate Atlas is directed at interested members of the public and decision-makers in politics and industry. Researchers also have access to its alternative forms of presentation.”

Although the warming trend is set to continue throughout the country, the regional impact of climate change until 2100 on an annual average is expected to take very different forms. The warming trend of the 21st century will be most strongly felt in Baden-Württemberg with average annual increases of between 2.2 and 6.3°C.

In Schleswig-Holstein, by contrast, the warming trend of between 2 and 4.4°C may be less alarming, but calculations indicate that inhabitants of this region will face the greatest average annual increase in precipitation by nationwide comparison. The central German states of Thuringia, Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt are not only situated in the middle of the country geographically, but also with regard to expected climate changes.

“There is no reason to sit back and relax. Even a moderate future decrease in summer precipitation will present a great challenge to an already tense situation, such as the one in agriculture,” says Dr Andreas Marx, head of the Climate Office for Central Germany at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ.

The warming trend is expected to continue throughout Germany, even in the winter months. Despite natural fluctuations in which hard winters may continue to occur, these will on the whole become rarer in the future. Climate calculations also point to a nationwide increase in winter precipitation, which as a result of higher temperatures will largely take the form of rain. Until the end of the century, winter precipitation is likely to increase most strongly in Bavaria (up to 75 percent) and in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (up to 63 percent). Storm forces are also likely to increase across the country in the course of the present century.

Here again, Mecklenburg-Pomerania is likely to feel the bulk of the impact with storm strengths increasing by an average of 13 percent. “By 2100, wind speeds of low-pressure fronts like Daisy that caused heavy flooding and stormy seas on the German Baltic coast in January could increase by 10 to 15 km/h,” says Dr Insa Meinke, head of the North German Climate Office of the GKSS Research Centre in Geesthacht.

Summer is the season that will be most strongly affected by the warming trend in the present century. Parallel developments in the same time period show a marked decrease in summer precipitation and wind speeds in all federal states. This trend is likely to be most strongly felt in Baden-Württemberg, where depending on the development of greenhouse gas emissions, temperature increases in summer could vary between 2.7 and 8.9°C, while summer precipitation could decrease between 18 and 51 percent.

Falling wind speeds could further intensify the mugginess of summer months, putting greater pressure on people and the environment. “We are already registering a marked increase in heat-loving organisms, including carriers of diseases like ticks. Traditional winter sports regions in low mountain ranges like the Mittelgebirge, the Black Forest and the lower Alps will have to adapt to less-than-ideal conditions for winter sports,” says Dr Hans Schipper from the South German Climate Office at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology.

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